Protecting large areas reduces the potential for community disassembly because it helps to ensure that trophic interactions, disturbance regimes, intra-specific and inter-specific competition, and other large-scale processes can continue to generate and maintain high levels of biodiversity and endemism. This adaptation objective considers the functional roles of species and takes a more dynamic perspective than the previous two adaptation objectives. In addition, many ecological processes are not species-specific. Thus, processes such as fire and flooding, which have a strong biophysical component, also come into play. It also recognizes that species abundance and persistence may not simply be products of available habitat within an ecosystem, but that species may also be integral and active players determining how the ecosystem functions.
Not only are ecosystems defined by their geographic location and spatial extent, they also reflect associated ecosystem services. For example, coastal ecosystems buffer coastlines from flooding and erosion during storm surges and upland forest in watersheds controlling surface runoff and erosion while reserving drinking water quality. Projects that focus on restoration of mangroves and coral reefs, for example, represent the "win-win" natural solutions to climate adaptation that help safeguard vulnerable human communities from storm surges and conserve and restore important ecological communities. The functions of such ecosystems are also maintained by food web interactions. Thus, conserving predators may be important not only to protect species with charismatic value but also to prevent loss of trees needed for watershed protection.
Overview
- Identify and map extent of species occurrences in relation to their thermal tolerances, habitats and food resources
Details
An assessment at this level of analysis requires data on species attributes such as behavior in relation to climate, population demography (e.g., birth and death rates, migration) in relation to climatic conditions, and the timing of life-cycle events in relation to climatic conditions. These data can then be used in combination with mathematical models to project how changing climatic conditions and species relationships will influence movement behavior or population growth. The degree of population growth can then be mapped in relation to climate gradients expected on landscapes under future climate change. This kind of analysis will likely not be feasible for many species because vital data on species behavior and demography in relation to climate are currently unavailable.
Approaches and Tools
- Map the distribution of indicator or umbrella species
- Construct spatially-explicit Agent-based Models
- Construct spatially-explicit Mechanistic Models
Pilot Projects
Geos Institute
NatureServe
Overview
- Map potential future patterns of fire, hydrology, carbon sequestration, and ecological integrity
- Map locations where ecosystem services provide human value
Details
Climate warming stands to reorganize communities and associated ecosystems across landscapes through species losses and gains, as well as differential rates of movement. This process of community disassembly and reassembly also means that assessment approaches may need to examine collections of species more directly and explicitly and determine how changing species composition influences ecological processes.
Assessments at this level can also draw on projected shifts in the distribution of plant communities. Similar to the modeling of species distributions, both mechanistic and correlative models have been used to model shifts in the distribution of suites of plant species. In general, correlative models project changes in the areas that are climatically suitable for today’s flora, although some take into account dispersal abilities as well. Mechanistic models include dynamic global vegetation models, forest gap models, and other approaches that simulate vegetation growth and competition and provide projections of how general vegetation types will likely change with changes in climate.
Assessments at this level of analysis may determine how changing biophysical conditions affect the components of ecosystems that drive processes (e.g., increase in fuel for fires, change in canopy cover, increase in nutrient loading, etc.). Climate warming is expected to alter chemical and biophysical conditions of ecosystems. Thus, mapping the spatial extent of biophysical change offers insight about the level that different areas of an ecosystem might be impacted. For example, sea-level rise is expected to cause the loss of habitat for coastal and estuarian species. Mapping the extent and topographic height of sea-level rise can inform which areas might be affected. Also, one could model and map change to ecological processes. Many ecosystem services (e.g., primary production, provisioning of freshwater) are dependent upon biophysical conditions like temperature, rainfall, and snowpack, which will be altered by climate change. Spatial data for these biophysical conditions can be obtained from global climate change models. These data can be used as inputs to process based models (e.g., models of primary production and hydrological flow) in order to provide spatially explicit projections of changes in the levels of ecosystem services.
Mapping ecosystem services provides important complementary insights about the value of a land area and water sources to the welfare of humans. In as much as plant and wildlife species provide these services, such a mapping approach provides a way to articulate important human dependencies on plant and wildlife species. For example, a grassland and associated riverine ecosystem that together comprise a watershed could provide several important services, including forage production for cattle and native ungulates, carbon sequestration, and water provisioning. Understanding of the rates at which these services are provisioned across the landscape can be developed using combinations of measured and modeled data. Measured data might include stream flow, primary production of different grassland plant species, and soil carbon levels. Modeled data may come from processed-based modeling of soil carbon sequestration rate based on primary production and plant species data or changes in stream flows based on hydrological modeling. Such data can provide a spatial representation of different levels of the services within the ecosystem. One can further illuminate the link between the provisioning of services and human dependency by mapping the locations of service beneficiaries (e.g., locations of ranches or agricultural communities) across the landscape.
Approaches and Tools
Pilot Projects
EcoAdapt
Geos Institute
NatureServe
Overview
Details
An assessment at this level of analysis aims to understand how biophysical gradients could change across landscapes. This involves mapping current and potential future climate patterns. Future climate gradients and spatial patterns in climate variability can be mapped using data from global climate models. Mapping climate patterns, especially temperature and precipitation gradients, represents a way to predict shifts in climate zones (e.g., plant hardiness zones, Holdridge life zones). These shifting climate zones can help predict distribution the distribution of species with varying climatic needs and tolerances. These changes may also stress large areas, creating the potential for catastrophic change. In addition, mapping the degree of variability in temperature and precipitation can be used to identify areas of potential climate stability across the landscape that can help to inform Adaptation Object 5
Approaches and Tools
- Map ownership of land throughout a region to identify intact and protected areas
- Map ecosystem services with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs)
- Map landscape integrity:
Pilot Projects
Geos Institute
NatureServe
Species and populations