This adaptation objective recognizes that many species may have limited capacities to evolve tolerances at a rate that is commensurate with the rate of future climate change. Consequently, there are risks that species may become extirpated throughout parts of their geographic ranges. One way to prevent some of these losses is to identify and protect climate refugia. Refugia are effectively safe havens on the landscape that provide the diversity of habitats and stability needed to promote persistence of biodiversity as regional biotic and abiotic environmental conditions change. In essence, they are locations that biodiversity can retreat to, persist in, and can potentially expand from under changing climate.
Overview
- Identify areas that could harbor current species into the future
- Identify where species populations remain stable
Details
An assessment at this level involves identifying areas that will likely be suitable for species into the future or areas where species may be able to move to as climates change. Such species-specific assessments will likely rely on the models and approaches used to project the responses of species and populations to changes in climate. These models may allow researchers to identify areas that will continue to have suitable climates for a given species into the future.
Approaches and Tools
Model relationship between snowpack and fecundity for cold-adapted species (e.g., red fir [Abies magnifica], marten [Martes americana], wolverine [Gulo gulo], and pika [Ochotona princeps]) that are already restricted to their interglacial refugia. This relationship can be projected into the future with forecasted snowpack predictions to predict future species distribution.
Use fossil evidence and/or genetic data to investigate the glacial history and post-glacial colonization of a species to map species refugia during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in relation to current distribution.
Identify and map limiting climate beyond which species cannot survive (such as physiological tolerance).
Pilot Projects
NatureServe
Overview
- Map habitats with high natural resilience to climate change (e.g. spring-fed streams)
- Map areas projected to experience little change in vegetation
Details
An assessment at this level focuses on identifying ecosystems that provide environmental conditions that are expected to undergo limited change under climate warming. These could be areas that are expected to have little change in vegetation, as determined by the kinds of vegetation assessments described above. They may also involve identifying and mapping geographic locations that are expected to undergo limited changes in biophysical conditions as determined by climate models.
Approaches and Tools
Map high-quality aquatic refugia (e.g., high stream length, more natural flow regimes, and fewer direct human impacts)
Map soil water capacity to assess available water balance for vegetation
Map areas with high natural resiliency to changing climate
Pilot Projects
EcoAdapt
Florida Natural Areas Inventory
Geos Institute
NatureServe
Overview
- Map drought refugia
- Map areas projected to maintain stable climate
Details
Landscape level assessments of refugia can be mapped in several ways. One could map places associated with Pleistocene climate refugia. Pleistocene refugia are landscape units that, due to topographic features, enabled species to survive glaciation processes. These are also locations from where modern species expanded their ranges when the glaciers receded. Thus, they represent locations of potential evolutionary origin of many modern plant and animal taxa. One could map areas of high physiographic or topographic complexity. Studies have shown that areas with a high degree of variability in landscape topography and geology/soils have associated variability in climatic conditions (especially temperature and moisture) that then supports a diversity of species that have different thermal and moisture requirements for survival.
Approaches and Tools
Map drivers of local variation in air temperature ( e.g., cold air drainage, elevation, and slope and aspect effects)
Map areas with stable climate (difference or percent change) and/or stable vegetation
Pilot Projects
EcoAdapt
Florida Natural Areas Inventory
Geos Institute
NatureServe
Species and populations